Tuesday Open Thread
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18 comments:
Zip Realty is showing strong #s for Oct: Seattle, WA Market Update for October 2006
Asking and Selling Prices are up 3% MOM. Also, sellers seem to be getting 100% 0f what they're asking. Price per sq.ft is up $1 and days on the market is down 6%.
Still looking like a very strong sellers market.
I also saw some price gain in Ballard, and DOM are not much higher than last year.
Still, there's noticeable softening this Fall in prices, which have not been made up in the latest pending sales. Strangely, the median home seems to be shrinking as well.
Hi S Crow,
You've been feeding us these market anecdotes for months...all supposedly signals of a slowing market. Yet sales went up MOM in Oct and the Median price for King County is at it's all time peak. Your anecdotes are interesting, but I think it's fair to say that at this point they're not telling us that much about the market as a whole.
CNN shows Seattle well within the top 10 fastest appreciating cities:
NAR 3rd quarter 2006 home prices
Seattle/Tacoma SFH 14.6% appreciation for 3rdQ 2006
Tim,
New to the Seattle Bubble and love your message.
We are very similar; I am an EE who has decided not to buy a house until I was debt free, with a 20% downpayment, a fixed rate mortgage not more than 25% of my take home pay, and an emergency fund of 3 to 6 months expenses. Definetly not how the average person is looking to buy a home these days.
The housing market appears to have turned into a pyramid scheme with mortgage brokers willing to give people loans that require more than 75% of their take home pay (when rates adjust) and realtors telling everyone to get in while you still can.
The thing with pyramid schemes are that you allways need the next guy to buy in on the bottom level. There appears to be a great number of people who are buying in at the bottom, but at what price? As the national housing bubble is bursting, that must be weighing on some peoples minds. That they have given up their retirement savings, drastically increased their consumer debt, and put their families at risk; all for an asset that might actually decline in value?
I will buy a house when I am ready. Not out of fear or greed. I am not willing to put my family at risk on the hope that everything goes according to plan.
Keep up the good word.
Yet sales went up MOM in Oct and the Median price for King County is at it's all time peak.
Geezus Chrysler Shugy'? Did you even look at what pugethouse posted? Stats for the 'bellweather' Ballard, last bastion of the boom according to your zillow sacred cow... take a look!!!
Closed July '06 466K (median)
...
Closed Nov.01-19 '06 457K (median)
Closed July '06' $264/sqft (median)
...
Closed July '06 $243/sqft (median)
The best you could say about that is that's its arriving at a 'soft landing', with a little stagnation. MOM means dook...
I refer you to the Mammet classic Glengarry Glen Ross tirade by Alec Baldwin...
(A)lways (B)e (C)losing...
Don't matter what zillow says dude, if you can't close at that price, your numbers are meaningless and that's ALL you've been feeding us for months so to your...
You've been feeding us these market anecdotes for months
touche' dude...
Ballard, last bastion of the boom according to your zillow sacred cow... take a look!!!
OK...here's some YOY #s for you....
Ballard was actually the fastest appreciating area in Oct.
Ballard (Area 705)
Oct 2006 Res/Condo Median: $436,475
Oct 2005 Res/Condo Median: $379,800
A 15% increase...the biggest in Seattle!!!
See: Breakouts - KING COUNTY SECTORS - Northwest Multiple Listing Service OCT 2006
OK...here's some YOY #s for you....
Nah man, I ain't buyin' it. You've sold em on the Shug' school of RE speculation. What really matters is what's happening "now" (paraphrasing you), so let's just stick with the MOM , mmmmkay?
so let's just stick with the MOM , mmmmkay?
Ballard MOM Area 705:
Sept 2006 Median Res/Condo: $419,875
Oct 2006 Median Res/Condo: $436,475
A nice 17K increase in one month...did you save that much renting last month?
Isn't Ballard and the general area N. of Seattle known as the "investor area"?
Yep, Ballard's getting humped for all its worth...
Haven't a clue if this condo bldg. is 'sold out' yet, me's guessing no.
Although you'd think by referencing 'granola' in the actually online speel, you'd get Volvo's lining up around the block to throw down on Hjarta
I'll see your MOM with...
July '06 466K
August '06 450K
...and call you!!! Oh no! What's goin' on? That's a -16K decrease MOM!
...dogs and cat's sleeping together I tell ya'
I can't think of a worse place to live in Ballard, perhaps all of NW Seattle, than the corner of Market and 15th.
You have the following 'amenities':
1. Fire station (nothing like that 3am siren)
2. Denny's (See also: Drunks at 3am)
3. 7-11 (See also: Drunks a 3am)
4. From personal experience, I can tell you that this is not a low-crime area either. There is a resident hooker that does tricks behind the 'sev. I am not making this up and really wish I did not see what I saw several weeks ago.
You would have to be a fool to buy there. I was blown away at how much they want for the units.
I love how they tout the geographical benefits to living in Ballard.
It's way fast to downtown and also heading North. Most of my neighbors work at Boeing or downtown...many at Real Networks in Belltown which is about 8 min. from Ballard.
Heading East can be slow...but there is also way less traffic over here. Very quiet...I lived in Laurelhurst for years and it was much louder and busier.
You've been feeding us these market anecdotes for months...all supposedly signals of a slowing market. Yet sales went up MOM in Oct and the Median price for King County is at it's all time peak.
Har. Yeah...and shooting your mouth off about "MOM" sales somehow isn't anecdotal, in the face of record YOY increases in King Country inventory, coupled with YOY slowing sales?
But hey, whatever, shug. You keep on keepin' the faith. Because you know what's funny? Nearly every post that you make can be put in a new light simply by placing the words "...for now." at the end of your sentences:
Ballard prices are up MOM!
Seems like it...for now.
King County median prices are at an all-time high!
Again, yes....for now.
Seattle is in [rag-of-the-day]'s list of the N fastest-appreciating cities?
Sure it is...for now.
You don't add a single bit of reason or logic to this forum...just puffery and anecdote. So perhaps you'll want to lay off your criticisms of others for using "market anecdotes," mmkay?
Go take care of your kid.
I notice the use of median figures to support one case or the other. I think I could be that guy (~median income owner of a ~median value home in a ~median king county neighborhood). The power I have. :)
Questions:
How about no bursting bubble nor continued appreciation? Neither a seller's nor buyer's market? A flat market for a few years until incomes and rents catch up (in the regression to the mean sense)?
There are signs of this. No real data to support, but pulling homes off the market until the spring indicates to me that people have a choice, the option to stay put.
And so do I. So that's what I am doing...for now. And I'm the median guy. Muhahahahaha!
MedianGuy,
The scenario you are suggesting was explored in the post Seattle Soft Landing: Do The Math.
Short version: It's possible, but it would likely take a minimum of 15 years, under the most rosy set of income assumptions.
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