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Wednesday, November 18, 1981

Weekend Open Thread

This is your open thread for this weekend. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Take a look at my market history report for Bakersfield and Los Angeles at

http://homepricehistory.blogspot.com/

If interested I'll run a Seattle report. Visit my site for details.

Ardell DellaLoggia said...

Very interesting that the payment to income ratio was equal to or higher than current levels, back in 1980 or so.

The difference then vs. now is that we were getting double digit raises back then, and so felt our income would grow into our payment, which it did, as your chart shows.

I was a salaried bank officer back then, in Philly, and remember my two back to back annual salary increases totalled 33%.

I don't think many today are projecting their income at 33% higher in two years, so I'm not sure what logic is being used today to commit 40% to 50% to housing payment. But I can tell you back then, we did, and we were correct to do so.

Yes, please to the seattle area. Can you do it by zip codes?

MisterBubble said...

The difference then vs. now is that we were getting double digit raises back then, and so felt our income would grow into our payment, which it did, as your chart shows.

Well, I don't know if everyone was getting double-digit raises (maybe just the real-estate agents?), but everyone was certainly paying double-digit interest on their home loans.

Perhaps that had something to do with the payment/income ratio.

MisterBubble said...

Sorry...maybe just the bankers and the real-estate agents. Didn't mean to leave you out of the equation, Ardell....

SeattleMoose said...

Inventory (from my one control source...Glover RE Site) has fallen back to levels not seen since first week in Sept. I think a lot of folks are pulling out of the market until the "Spring buying season"....

Date / Listings / Delta / %
07-May / 7302 / /
15-May / 7486 / 184 / 3%
21-May / 7665 / 179 / 5%
11-Jun / 8099 / 434 / 11%
18-Jun / 8154 / 55 / 12%
24-Jun / 8352 / 198 / 14%
01-Jul / 8417 / 65 / 15%
08-Jul / 8758 / 341 / 20%
15-Jul / 9057 / 299 / 24%
22-Jul / 9139 / 82 / 25%
29-Jul / 9044 / -95 / 24%
05-Aug / 9059 / 15 / 24%
12-Aug / 9191 / 132 / 26%
19-Aug / 9348 / 157 / 28%
26-Aug / 9442 / 94 / 29%
02-Sep / 9363 / -79 / 28%
09-Sep / 9597 / 234 / 31%
16-Sep / 9959 / 362 / 36%
21-Sep / 10121 /162 / 39%
28-Sep / 10639 /518 / 46%
05-Oct / 10434 /-205/ 43%
14-Oct / 10428 /-6 / 43%
21-Oct / 10446 /18 / 43%
28-Oct / 10374 /-72 / 42%
04-Nov / 10496 /122 / 44%
11-Nov / 9987 / -509 / 37%
18-Nov / 9706 / -281 / 33%

What may reverse the trend normally seen this time of year (fewer listings) is if flippers start to panic and dump their holdings. If that happens then expect unusual increases in inventory.

meshugy said...

Wow...just checked my house on Zillow and now it's up to $503K. Was $379 when we bought it in April 2005.

BTW, It's a Boy

Lake Hills Renter said...

Congratz, Shug. Is he a housing bull yet? =)

Lake Hills Renter said...

It must be open house day in my neighborhood -- there are three of them going on right now. One of them has had a for sale sign up for at least a month, and today it's sporting a big "Just Listed!" placcard. So it's been on the market a month but is just now being listed? Or is it more realtor deception?

MisterBubble said...

Well, shug, at least you'll have something to celebrate when your house is worth $350k a year from now....;-)

Congratulations.

Kaleetan said...

"Well, shug, at least you'll have something to celebrate when your house is worth $350k a year from now....;-)"

Keep dreaming...it will be more like 650K and thats with a soft landing.

Grivetti said...

Wow...just checked my house on Zillow and now it's up to $503K. Was $379 when we bought it in April 2005.

I just checked Shugy' out on Laymow.com, his annoyance quotient is up to 98.5%, just think when he got on the blog a year or so ago he was hovering at 85%!!

Christina said...

The flipper, over two weeks, reduced his asking price of the house down our street from $548,000 to $525,000.

I'm a cynical cuss, I think it'll sell at $475K, which means it'll probably go at $490K.

Richard said...

Keep dreaming...it will be more like 650K and thats with a soft landing.


Have you actually visited Loyal Heights/ Sunset Hill?

seattle long term owner said...

I really don't see much point in arguing the housing market...

3 mos ago it was NO BUBBLE

now it's SOFT Landing

next year it will be WTF?

I think only time will tell but if anybody really thinks it's still a bull market, he should go and buy another investment house... if you can't lose, put your money where it can make more real money (not just equity)... NO money... who cares.. OPTION ARM negative with 102% financing..

betamax said...

Keep dreaming...it will be more like 650K and thats with a soft landing.

Keep hallucinating...there will be no soft landing.