Friday Open Thread
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28 comments:
But in comments on the Seattle PI Real Estate Professionals blog and Rain City Guide blog, under the screen name synthetic, he writes negative and mean spirited attacks.
Hah! Libel is funny!
"Or should we follow Timothy Ellis at Seattle Bubble whose profile says “Just some guy, living and letting live.” But in comments on the Seattle PI Real Estate Professionals blog and Rain City Guide blog, under the screen name synthetic, he writes negative and mean spirited attacks.
How about we not listen to whoever wrote that half-arsed blog, dude for some reason has developmental issues that hinders him from looking under the 'blog contributors' in the right hand column...
Chad = Tim... huh?
Apartment market is heating up
Yeppers... this is the 106ยบ temp marking housing bubble fever, the last symptom before the patient fades...
Boston suffered the same plage last year...
Condo conversions spreading
High prices are driving first-time home buyers into some long-neglected cities and Boston neighborhoods, fueling record condominium sales
The buyers include empty-nesters and well-heeled professionals seeking an urban lifestyle
While a hot real estate market brings new money and improved services into hard-pressed neighborhoods, it also pushes rents beyond the reach of many workers
East Boston rents have surged as property values have risen, though.
The year all this hooplah was written? A few days ago perhaps? Nope...
May 3rd, 2005
What's Boston look like nowadays?
Housing market ‘upside down’ : More homes selling below purchase price
would-be condo sellers stuck trying to unload units in a difficult market may be looking to get as much as they can, even if it’s far less than what they paid.
...One downtown broker describes a North End condo owner who bought his one bedroom at the market’s height for $330,000. He is now “in pieces” after having to sell for $320,000.
Nov 1st, 2006
...but Seattle's different, right?
What a difference a year makes...
Overheard... a FOAF's Queen Anne Condo has finally sold, after being on the market over three months. "Why so long?" I asked. "She put it on the market at a less-than-ideal time," (July) was the answer.
It's been two weeks and the $548K house on our block still hasn't sold. The one across the street, priced at $410K, sold within a week. So did the $548K one when it was priced at $380K three months ago. I wouldn't think a house priced $150K above the other houses on the street would be an easy sell, but what do I know, I'm not a flipper or a Realtor.
"She put it on the market at a less-than-ideal time," (July) was the answer.
right... the weather was too nice, and the Mariner's were losing, dollar-vs.-peso such that everyone went to mexico... or something...
Synthetik,
I write a large percentage of the articles on RCG. I honestly don't see more truth in your writings than mine. I spend a great deal of time testing everyone's "truths". I run stats. I watch the market closely. From my vantange point every house not selling has a reason why, and every house worth buying has more than one offer. That is my truth, after exhaustive research as of today. Truth changes...lies stay the same regardless of changing realities.
The "Bubble Bursting" would not change my income. In fact it could increase my income. "It's time to SELL!" is the same as "It's time to BUY!" in terms of Realtor self-interest issues.
I have cautioned people not to rely on the market to continue as it has in the past.
But you seem to target RCG unless we tell YOUR truth, which is really very far from the truth, isn't it? Prices rolling back to 1997 levels? I see no justification for THAT "truth".
You once said that I, personally, must own a lot of real estate. Not true. Easy to check. I own my home that I live in. To date I truly believe that I have been more on a responsible quest than you, to find "the truth". So why do you target RCG in your comment?
Ardell:
So why do you target RCG in your comment?
Not to chime in, but to chime in... As I see it, all blog's have an agenda, why? because they're blogs, people on them aren't journalists, they're people with an opinion... and as it sits,
...when I see an 'anti-bubble' blog, they're usually, if not 100% manned by Realtors, Mortgage Lenders, Sellers, Owners with a vested interest in continued asset appreciation (the housing ATM crowds, etcetera...), people who've invited risk by 'investing' in the current Greenspan induced credit bubble.
...This is a forum that's agenda is driven by potential buyers, and whenever you're catering to that crowd, you perfrom a 'consumer reports' type of activism. So you can flip on the TV and lazily buy into the '9 out of 10 doctors reccomend Chesterfields!' *time to smoke*, or you can neuter the vested interest and report numbers from people with no financial stake/risk in the current market.
As a some-day potential buyer, I tend to take the side of the latter.
What I find surprising about the "apartment shortage" is that rents on SFH's are still hovering around $1/sq ft/month for North Seattle. -
I think this speaks to the significance that condo-conversions have played in the upward movement of rents. One thing to note is that when they tally the tight-market/sky-high rents, they're only compiling complex with 20 or more units... not the SFH/THM/DPLX market at all... which leaves the dubious claim that rents are skyrocketing because of the old RE selling point Robust-job-growth, etcetera...
Trackbike,
Excellent post! Without a doubt, rents will continue to go up. Cost of owning will go down. They will meet in the middle with a slight ownership premium when the market has properly corrected.
Other markets that are currently deflating have already started to see this exact trend. See 'Bay Area' for further reference.
Amazing what kind of reporting you get when you decouple the facts with the industry...
Very intersting that Realtors state that due to the Job growth rate, Seattle is immune to a housing slump. San Diego, continues to have a 9% job growth rate.....9 PERCENT, well above Seattle and the National Average, couple that with a housing shortage in regards to increased population demands, one would think they would be immune...and yet, they are experiencing the greatest housing collapse in years.
It is due to the massive amounts of equity they had when they sold their houses in the prime, that Seattle's prices climbed in the past few years. Those days are over. No longer can a Southern Californian lay down 500K without thinking about it. Sorry for the bad news.
Looks like he posted a correction regarding Tim/Synthetik on Seattle House Hound.
Yes, I emailed him about the error. His response was more defensive/antagonistic than apologetic, but at least he posted a correction, even though it was newspaper-style (i.e., the original post is still unchanged).
Why the constant comparison to San Diego (where job growth is expected to stall in 2007, very different from Seattle)? Why not compare to other bubble markets in CA like Orange County or San Francisco, where there have not bee price declines?
Housing starts plunge
From Vanguard, which now appears to be including information on the housing market along with its reports on the stock market:
"The housing market took in yet another dose of discouraging statistics this week: New residential construction fell 14.6% to a seasonally adjusted 1.49 million units in October, the lowest level in six years. Most analysts had expected a much smaller decline. In addition, the figures for August and September were revised lower, further emphasizing the downward trend. Housing starts fell in all regions of the country except the Northeast. Permits for new housing construction, a key measure of future demand, dropped 6.3%."
Downtown... The job market for San Diego is NOT expecting to decrease for quite some time...don't know where you got your info from. San Fran Housing market is also decreasing sharply and there are many blogs from that area talking about the the bubble burst as well. Orange County has seen a decrease in housing prices as well.
the senseible comparison with San Diego is due to the fact that that city had seen drastic rises in prices over the past few years, as has this area....greatly due to the amount of San Diegans selling and moving here. the majority of the California buyers up here are in fact from that specific area, and I again assert that is was due to their equity rich pockets that inflated the prices here.
Why not compare to other bubble markets in CA like Orange County or San Francisco, where there have not bee price declines? - downtown
Besides the vast differences in metro population (Pacific NW - 3.8 million, Bay Area - 7.1 million, Southern Cal - 17.6 million), economic size/diversity, weather, and statewide property tax-freezing initiatives, I can't thing of a good reason not to compare them.
Source: Housing Tracker
San Francisco ( +0.7% ):
11/2005 Median - $725,000
11/2006 Median - $729,999
Orange County( -2.2% ):
11/2005 Median - $629,000
11/2006 Median - $615,000
And for something a little closer, Boston( -3.2%, and rising foreclosures ):
11/2005 Median - $439,000
11/2006 Median - $424,900
deeplennon - good point.
As a major contributor to a blog intended to make people think before spending a half-million on a home, synthetik clearly has as much to lose or gain as Ardell does as a major contributor to a blog designed as a marketting tool for RE Professionals.
Since synthetik does not get a paycheck every time someone does not buy an overinflated house, clearly, he has as much to gain or lose as Ardell, who gets a paycheck every time she makes a sale.
Ergo cogito sum - Synthetik is a big, old hypocrite.
deeplennon, clearly you have a monopoly on "truthiness".
Well economists at the University of San Diego seems to think local job growth next year will be much slower:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/northcounty/20061111-9999-1b11economy.html
Sorry but that doesn't compare to Seattle.
plymaster - i am sure i do not understand your point. are you arguing that other markets are so unique that you cannot compare them to seattle? or are you arguing that you should compare them?
Hork,
Thanks for the chuckle. I started this business in the worst market in history...I think I can take it.
I'd like to see the market slow down to the point where no buyer is losing a house in a multiple bid war...not happening yet. Still happening every day.
I'd like to see the market slow down to the point where a buyer gets to see at least five really good properties in their price range on market, and actually pick one out of five or at least three GOOD ones. Not seeing that yet.
As far as I'm concerned, the market isn't slow enough for buyers to get a decent house at a decent value yet.
Real life...real stories...reality. Lots of stuff no one wants on market. Lots of stuff overpriced on market. Nothing selling for less than the last comparable house. Buyers still getting beat out by other offers.
In case anyone wants to hear the truth. Just Fall around here so far. I'll be the first to tell you when the market gets flat or starts turning down. Ain't happening here. Here, for the most part, being Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland. I live in Kirland, sell more in Bellevue and Seattle at the moment.
I have several buyers and there's nothing out there to sell them that I can confidently recommend. As soon as I find one, there is more than one offer. One in Bellevue got an offer of $125,000 OVER the asking price which was high...without an escalator clause! I was astounded. That guy really should have had his own agent. He was just throwing money away at that point. It was $75,000 over the next highest offer, best I can tell, for no good reason.
Until we don't see any more cases like the one above, I'm not buying it. Tell some of the buyers trying to find a decent place that it is a buyer's market. Cause I know it ain't so where I'm working in Seattle and on the Eastside.
That's the truth guys as I see it from my vantage point.
No global bubble.......
Naaa. Everything is rosey
Oh oh
The Times November 16, 2006
Banks told to predict effects of a 40% crash in house prices
By Patrick Hosking, Banking and Finance Editor
BANKS in the UK have been ordered by financial regulators to assess how they would cope in the event of house prices crashing by 40 per cent.
The instruction to include a housing slump scenario in their stress-testing models comes after the Financial Services Authority found that some banks were failing to include gloomy enough assumptions in their modelling.
Click here: Banks told to predict effects of a 40% crash in house prices - Industry sectors - Times Online
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9063-2455507,00.html
downatown
Let me paraphrase my previous statement: You cannot compare San Francisco and Orange County to Seattle, and what's more, San Francisco is flat, and Orange County is down (contrary to your assertion).
Boston is more comparable to Seattle (for geographic, economic, and demographic reasons), and it is also down. For that matter, the same goes for San Diego.
Pegasus,
I don't do global. I am watching a property in Manhattan Beach CA at 714 Manhattan Beach Blvd. The person who bought it in April of this year (from the guy I sold it to) is likely going to take a loss after costs.
Zillow it. It is a good property to track to see how far the market has moved there since April. You have to go an extra step to see the full detail. I was the one who bought it for $545,000 in 2000 and sold it for $679,000 in 2001. The guy I sold it to sold it in April of this year for, I think, $1,335,000 and I think the new owner has it on market for $1,399,000. After cost of sale, that would be loss from his purchse price IF he got full price.
If anyone knows others around the Country we can watch, that would be real evidence of price change.
trackbike,
Disclosure. I have been in the business a long time, but not all here. I'm from the East Coast, Philly. 16 years in Real Estate 8 East Cost and 8 West Coast.
Synthetik,
I know that Tim is aware of the threatening emails that you've sent to Ardell because I've forwarded them to him in the past.
After what you wrote to Ardell, I'm actually surprised that he lets you continue as a contributor on this blog.
Okay, I'm going to comment on this, and then I'm quite tired of hearing about it, so I hope you all respect my wish of taking the argument somewhere else.
The email in question sent by Syntheik said "I'll be watching your blog," which I will point out is quite different from "I'll be watching you." The latter is clearly a threat. The former, not so much.
Obviously both Ardell and Synthetik are excitable people, whose online personalities and sensibilities are completely incompatible. Fine, whatever. I've been telling both of you to ignore the other for over a month now, and yet neither of you seems to care to follow that advice.
I think there's some serious over-reacting going on on both sides, and frankly, I'm tired of reading it here. If you really can't resist continuing the argument, at least take it somewhere else, like here.
Tim - I think this a good way to handle arguements. Its like cage fighting - blog style. Perhaps there's some money in this business :)
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