Thursday Open Thread
This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.
Off-topic comment? Interesting link?
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16 comments:
As per trackbike's comment
Can you smell the panic among the bubbleheads? They predicted a year ago that the market here would be in shambles by now...
Can you name one of these bubbleheads? Even if we do have a few "financial survivalists" amongst us, 'panic' is symptom of the overleveraged, panic is when the Nasdaq nosedives into oblivion, panic is when you're underwater on an ARM with no means of selling, panic is when all your eggs are in one handbasket and everything's going to 'hell in a handbasket', panic is when you've put all your financial risk into a small >1000 sq.ft. condo overlooking a drugdeal in Belltown and property values are stagnating...
To the bubblesitter, its a waiting game. Housing is a commodity, people have bought and sold houses since civilization arose form the wheat fields of ancient Sumeria, and you know what? Housing will always be bought and sold by the average man, because it HAS TO! If prices are too high and affordability is in the toilet, it must come down to meet what the average person can afford...
This isn't a one way ticket off and exploding planet here, there is no 'priced out forever'
As per trackbike's comment
Can you smell the panic among the bubbleheads? They predicted a year ago that the market here would be in shambles by now...
Can you name one of these bubbleheads? Even if we do have a few "financial survivalists" amongst us, 'panic' is symptom of the overleveraged, panic is when the Nasdaq nosedives into oblivion, panic is when you're underwater on an ARM with no means of selling, panic is when all your eggs are in one handbasket and everything's going to 'hell in a handbasket', panic is when you've put all your financial risk into a small >1000 sq.ft. condo overlooking a drugdeal in Belltown and property values are stagnating...
To the bubblesitter, its a waiting game. Housing is a commodity, people have bought and sold houses since civilization arose form the wheat fields of ancient Sumeria, and you know what? Housing will always be bought and sold by the average man, because it HAS TO! If prices are too high and affordability is in the toilet, it must come down to meet what the average person can afford...
This isn't a one way ticket off and exploding planet here, there is no 'priced out forever'
BTW, as a bubblesitter... my only prediction is this...
Recession Q2 2007
Well, seeing the higher-end houses staying on the market longer (>$750K) including some new construction, I am thinking that the high-end rollers are sitting out till spring. Competition is still fierce though for the "moderate" houses which is brining in the "don't want to be priced out" buyers.
Honestly, this market is still going to up , albeit more slowly, and then pick up again with the Fed starting to lower rates in the spring as the 2007 recession begins to manifest.
I don't know of anyone that, with any seriousness, predicted we would be in shambles at this point in time.
Most see the slow grind downward until a panic event sets in. Just about every bear is looking at the ARM resets as the starting point for most of the impending fun.
The only people that think this is bad are the bulls. Just ask anyone in the REIC what they think, and they will tell you that "the worst is behind us" and "strong appreciation should arrive in the spring."
No, we have a few quarters to go, but this is FAR from the bottom.
Seattle area considered tops for owning office property
For the first time, real-estate professionals nationwide have named the Seattle metro area as the most desirable place to buy and own office property, a distinction likely to mean more buildings selling for top dollar in the coming year.
The report puts Seattle in the top five overall for commercial development and investment prospects, signaling interest in the area's retail outlets, hotels, warehouses, apartments and condominiums in addition to offices.
The report, done annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute, a nonprofit group in Washington, D.C., is widely regarded as an indicator of where individual real-estate markets are headed.
Investors see robust returns in the area's declining office-vacancy rates and rising rents.
There may be five to 20 qualified bids on any good property," Fuhr said.
Seattle named a top 'global gateway' city
The U.S. cities that will perform the best next year will be coastal metropolises with easy access to the rest of the globe, according to the report co-compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers and released locally today. Seattle's office market leapt over New York and San Francisco into the No. 1 spot with more real estate experts rating it as a "buy" than any other city.
The report calls cities such as Seattle "expensive and elitist," meaning that "people pay a premium to live in them." But companies pay handsomely for brainpower, so employees can afford to live in these places. In turn, an affluent population supports the art community, which drives tourism, it said.
Seattle made it into the top five regions nationally for the first time in the 28-year history of the report, said Kelly Mann, executive director of the institute's Seattle District Council. "Specifically with respect to office -- Seattle is on everybody's shopping list," she said.
"We believe Seattle has all the basic fundamentals of good real estate," said Rios, whose company typically throws money at developers in Manhattan and Los Angeles.
Downtown Condo Experts Optimistic about Local Housing Market Trends
Local real estate experts say that Seattle remains a bargain by comparison to other major metropolitan cities, and they predict that sales momentum will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2007.
“The greater Seattle area is significantly outpacing national averages for job and income growth as well as housing appreciation,” says Dean Jones, president and CEO of Realogics, a Seattle-based real estate consultancy firm. “From a national vantage point, we have the most enviable major metropolitan market in the country. 2007 is lining up to be another banner year for Seattle.”
Seattle is the second most “bubble proof” marketplace in the country, reports MSN.com and Business 2.0 Magazine, citing strong job, income growth and constraints on supply and regional economic expansion.
The Seattle housing cycle is still playing catch up to millennium boomtowns such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Until very recently, Seattle hasn’t experienced consecutive years of double digit appreciation. While it’s true that a much-needed correction is occurring in many of these markets – experts remain bullish on Seattle and feel buyers are making smart decisions.
“The Seattle market has some built-in assurances that only the best projects with the most capable developers receive funding from what appears to be a dwindling number of construction lenders willing to lend to large condo projects,” Jones said.
ther market experts agree that the fundamentals in Seattle have been and continue to be very strong:
-- The Brookings Institute recorded downtown Seattle as having the second fastest growth rate for residential population in the nation – up 67 percent from 1990 to 2000.
-- According to Conway Pedersen Economics - over 66,000 jobs have been added this year on top of 50,000 new jobs last year. This trend is expected to continue through at least 2009 with the addition of another 140,000 jobs to the Puget Sound Region.
-- Money Magazine says, “As forecasts for housing price growth have cooled for most of the country, they are calling for booming values in the state of Washington.”
-- Forbes.com stated Seattle is anticipated to experience one of the highest rates of appreciation over the next decade, estimated at 59.2 percent by 2016.
-- Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2007 released by Urban Land Institute (ULI) says, “Seattle, along with New York, Washington, Los Angeles and San Francisco, were cited as the top major U.S. markets for real estate investment in all categories led by housing.”
Downtown Condo Experts Optimistic about Local Housing Market Trends
Yeah... this is what I call a 'no brainer'... e.g. "Cheney optimistic about Iraq"
The Seattle housing cycle is still playing catch up to millennium boomtowns such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego
Right... well, hopefully with Global Warming we'll play 'catch-up' with all the Palm Trees and all the sun ala a 'Mediterranean Climate'...
People who compare Seattle to California have the same kind of groupthing that's probably employed GW started using Saddam and Osama interchangeably....
Apples (Seattle, naturally) - Oranges (Cali, naturally)
Eleua, you commented that "the only people who think this is bad are the bulls." I would argue that most of us on this board that what is coming is not just bad but REALLY bad, but also absolutely necessary.
Flopfolder, based on the Texas experience that various folk including myself have discussed, I think the correction is much, much more likely to take place in the form of outright price declines rather than wage inflation. If the economic base is not there to support higher house prices, it isn't there to support higher wages.
Slinky,
No argument from me on how a recession is neccessary for a healthy economy.
Unfortunately for Seattle, the new State lending guidance that will apply to the primary purveyors of toxic loan products are finally due out November 14th. If these are anything more than just CYA, the Seattle buyer pool is going to look a lot thinner come spring.
Is there a link or website that covers that? That's something that seems to be under the radar for most consumers...
How's this for extreme off-topic..... Ed Bradley just passed away. I liked his style.
Kaleetan,
Most urban areas tend to be more liberal than conservative. They also tend to be more densely populated, and therefore more expensive.
Domino theory....
It creeps north
time to man the Ballard phalynx!!!
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