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Sunday, November 29, 1981

Wednesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

13 comments:

synthetik said...

The Seattle PI sponsored real estate blog is claiming that it's still a seller's market. Also, in a recent development, prices evidently WILL increase.

Hmm, why use NEW homes and avg. home price as a barometer? The data is from www.realstats.net but you'll have to pay $475 to get it.

King County

New Single Family Homes (vs. Year-to-date 2005)

New single family homes units sold in October 2006 off 18% from September 2006

- Average sale price: $589,533, up 26%
- Median sale price: $489,950, up 24%

Existing Home Sales (vs Year-to-date 2005)

Existing home transactions sold increased 3% in October 2006 from September 2006

- Average price up 13% to $502,789
- Half homes (median) sold for less than $407,000, up 15%

Relative inventory decreased to 2.8 months compared to 2.9 months reported last month.

This is still a seller's market. Prices will increase.

rentalbliss said...

Lets hope so just what we need more unaffordable housing, toxic loans, and people paying 60%+ income to service mortgages. It can only end plaesantly with no adverse effects to the economy as a whole.

synthetik said...

Looks as though the NRF (National Retail Federation) is playing the same game as the NAR.

NRF Quote which led to headlines:

"Retailers kicked off the holiday selling season in style as shoppers across the country set their alarms for the wee hours of the morning to catch doorbuster specials. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2006 Black Friday Weekend Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 140 million shoppers hit the stores on Black Friday weekend, spending an average of $360.15, up 18.9 percent from last year’s $302.81.*"

Mish's Comment:

See the asterisk?* Follow it, and we see

"*Spending data includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for Sunday."

Even that disclaimer is inaccurate: First, this is not based upon actual sales data, but rather, is a survey of consumers. Not only that, but much of the survey results are self-reported projections of spending expectations -- not receipts.

Note that this has become an annual rite of error by NFR. In my opinion, based on my read of how they present this data, I suspect they are purposefully attempting to mislead the media. We saw the exact same issue last year in the way they report their survey: In 2005, the NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION said holiday Retail sales rose 22%; We later found the actual sales data was nowhere near that statement. Taking a survey forecast and reporting it as actual sales is not honest.

synthetik said...

Oops, link here.

meshugy said...

King county Inventory stands at 2.8 months supply and dropping fast (was 2.9 last month). With median prices rising and inventory dropping, I don't think we can characteristic the market as anything other then a sellers paradise. Perhaps it will slow down sometime next year, but it's clear the market has shown little, if any signs of weakness.

Grivetti said...

Me's loves the Shug's periodic "turds in the punchbowl"...

King county Inventory stands at 2.8 months supply and dropping fast (was 2.9 last month).

dropping fast... hmmm...

Shall we sit down for a little math lesson mmmmkay?

fast, is characterized in the physics world as a 'rate of descent' which connoates acceleration the derivative of velocity... in order for one to take a 'derivative' you have to have a curve/function/discrete data set, which is usually a series of points over a time epock. Even armed with your handy derivative, you can merely only 'extrapolate' with a curve fit of a likely function e.g. logarthmic, exponetial (right tab excell for more curve-fit fun)for future epochs.

As King of the MOM reporting, unless you actually perform said derivative and curve fit for inventory listings, can you statistically say 'fast'...?

e.g. Math skills in public schools are continuing to drop and WASL math scores are falling fast!

MisterBubble said...

"King county Inventory stands at 2.8 months supply and dropping fast"

So, what's the rate of the drop, Meshugy?

Since you're sure that inventory is dropping "fast," you obviously know the rate, yes? But here's what I can't figure out: if you know the rate, why do you use meaningless descriptions like "fast," instead of simply stating something factual?

Puzzling. Truly puzzling....

MisterBubble said...

Argh. Grivetti and I are sharing the same brain today, apparently....

PugetHouse said...

Meshugy,

If you must cram the market into a myopic pigeonhole, I suppose "sellers' paradise" adequately expresses the miserable lot of first-time buyers.

IMHO, this forum is valuable as an alternative to such coarse platitudes.

Richard said...

I wonder why this "sharp drop" in inventory isn't showing up on housingtracker yet? The inventory trend in Seattle is much less bullish than in San Diego where both prices and inventory have drifted down during the past 6 months.

emcityjill said...

It is just so obvious that Meshugy just posts this kind of tripe to get a rise out of those who fall for it. Meshugy doesn't have facts to back his inventory claim up. When he thinks he has something factual, he posts a link. When he doesn't post a link, he's fabricated something factual. Capisce?

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stephen said...

Has anyone here examined owner building a home in King cnty? Another year of increases, it's just absurd. Money's cheap and building materials (might have to drive for them :) are at a five year low....