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Sunday, September 10, 2006

Bubble Link Roundup

Time for another inbox-clearing bubble link roundup.

I would also like to point out the addition of two more local real estate blogs to the sidebar: Seattle Housing Buzz and Tacoma Real Estate Market. Welcome.


matt said...

My summary...

Article#1: But marketing also touches on things that have less to do with particular amenities. Braeburn, for instance, is one of several projects focusing on spiritual growth.

Yeah, amenities like sound insulation, washer-dryers, dishwashers, who needs that when you can 'transend you surroundings' with spiritual growth... which is what's going to be needed to keep you sane in your 400 sq.ft. 250K iHovel nightmare! ...personally if I was going to fork over silly money, I'd go for something a little more trans-humanist

Article#2: 15 years ago, she paid less than $150,000 for the three-bedroom..If you tell a current homebuyer this, be sure to have tissues handy. This is just the kind of information that will make them want to weep.

Oh yes, us lowly lower-class wannabe homebuyers, so miserable, sobbing ourselves to sleep, yes... a have-not victims. Too bad we're incapable of keeping our checkbooks in our pockets... Its going to be horrible when the Stalinist NAR secret police bust down my door and force me to sign my life away to a i.o/neg-am :(

Article#3: Rising gas prices hurt most everyone, but they've really hammered residential real-estate agents, many of whom drive more than 20,000 miles a year on business.

Another nail in the coffin of the racket that is the NAR, T.S. lady, I'd recommend getting a prius, but I really don't care whether you can turn a buck, its the "new economy" right? Get a new job ... I'd like nothing better than to see the old skool realtor industry go under. Viva la Redfin!

Article#4: Seattle was the best-educated city in 2004 with just over half the adults having bachelor's degrees.

Bogiosity to the highest order. Richland, WA has one of the highest Phd/capita ratios in the country and home prices there are sane! That and what kind of degrees are Seattle-ites acquiring? Remember folks, its not quantity, its quality that counts... and whatever degrees your graduatiing with that cause you to drive your Volvos through the narrow streets of Ballard like it was an experiment in Brownian motion, I'd demand a tuition refund, you got gyp'd.

dash_point said...

But condo's aren't just the rage in downtown Seattle, they're cropping up everywhere, even on Bainbridge Island.

I've heard of those developments on BI, where some are still being prepped for sale. How much overbuilt is BI for condos? (maybe Eleua can chime in) I dunno...if someone settles to live in a condo, wouldn't they like to be further in the city? If you're going to live out that way, why not just get a house--than deal with annoying HOA issues all the time? Condo...or real home? hmmm...let's see.

meshugy said...

Has anyone checked this out?

Real-time Market Profile for SEATTLE

You have to subscribe to get more info..but the little snap shot is interesting.

One thing they say is:

We developed the Market Action Index for at-a-glance real estate research. The Index is a barometer of real estate supply and demand. A value above 30 indicates demand is relatively robust, we call that a Seller's Market. Below 30 is a Buyer's Market. Also use the long-term trends as a leading indicator for prices. When markets fall persistently into Buyer's territory prices will likely follow.

The chart shows the Market Action Index was much higher in July. But is currently at 100...far above 30 which would indicate a buyers market.

synthetik said...

Scraping the bottom of the barrel like that will give you splinters.

I don't need another lame dot com to tell me the health of the market. It's obvious we are currently in a sellers markets that is transitioning into a buyers market.

For smart buyers, the index is at about a -50 right now.

FYI, I tried to create an account unsuccessfully several times.

I like the site and am curious about it - it might be a great place for the shugy's of the world to best determine when to sell their home.

Eleua said...

Regarding Bainbridge condos...

Why anyone moves to Bainbridge Island to live in a condo is really puzzling to me.

You don't move to Bainbridge to live in a quasi-urban rabbit-hutch; you move here to enjoy your 1.5 acres of bucolic pretension - and the overcrowded schools.

We need all these condos to increase our urban density. Why would you want to make Bainbridge more dense? We have to.

Back in the early 90s, the "New Bainbridge" (aka - California X-pats) found itself in control of the political levers on the island. First order of business: move out all the toothless morons, chicken coops, and longstanding families (aka - "Old Bainbridge"). This was done by incorporating the entire island, rather than just the "Winslow" area. No longer would people be able to live on Tolo Road, or Agate Point, in the same manner they would in Hansville, Seabeck, or unincorporated Port Orchard.

With the COBI in charge of everything from the Agate Pass bridge to the piers that extend into Rich Passage, they could enforce certain codes to help gentrify all the rural parts of the island. an attempt to turn this place into Martha's Vinyard - WEST, BI found itself under a state mandate to increase density.

Great. Bainbridge is now on the road to becoming Orange County with a moat.


I don't have much intel on the condos. I'll snoop around and see what I can find. Lately, I've been busier than I have for quite some time. Two jobs (one career, and one start-up), an endless stream of family visitations (primarily in-laws), Mrs. E trying to kill me with sex, collaborating with one of my Navy buddies on a collection of Naval Aviator short stories, keeping up with my investment portfolio and research, trying to put the finishing touches on a move to Poulsbo, and I don't have much time for sleuthing for my blog (hence, the spartan contributions to what was an ambitious undertaking).

The Tim provides most of the macro data for the region, and it would be pointless to repeat it.

Once Bainbridge starts to tank in earnest, I will hopefully have some time to post useful data.

My guess is once the condos hit the market in earnest, they will drag down the price of SFH units on the island. I hear all of this ambitious talk of multi-million dollar condos on Bainbridge, but I also hear it about Bremerton.

Once the bagholders figure out that people don't want to live in a fundamentally rural community in an urban setting (just live in Seattle - Belltown is closer, and there is stuff to do.), the panic will be on.

Back in '97, the median home on Bainbridge was a 3 bedroom 2 bath, 2200sf house on 1.25 to 2.5 acres. You paid $325K for that house (5x income). Why, with income at the same level + $5K, would you live in a glorified apartment?

Bremerton is more urban, but who would pay $750K to $1M to live 2 blocks from one of the highest crime neighborhoods in the state? My aunt was murdered in that neighborhood several years ago. Commute time to Seattle is 75 minutes (and that is if you work at the Federal Building).

This is sad and laughable at the same time.

BTW, on a completely unrelated note, please see this pictorial on the events of 5 years ago. You can read my brief intro at my THE WTF? FILES blog.

Peckhammer said...

if someone settles to live in a condo, wouldn't they like to be further in the city?

In-city living, in a new condo, is going to run ~$500/square foot, plus .50/square foot per month for condo dues. It may simply be a matter of affordability.

Of couse, this doesn't account for the luxury market, which is allgedly raging in Olympia, BI, Bremerton, Bellingham, etc.

Anonymous said...

The Onyx!

Overlooking a park with a growing crime problem, and all you need to do is step out of your front door to be accosted by street alcoholics looking for spare change to spend at the state liquor store right next door!

This turkey has been on the market for months.

Anonymous said...

the marketing for the Onyx confuses me. are they targetting heterosexuals with that picture of the guy on the motorcycle with the two ladies? or is the implication that "you're so badass that you'll have hot fag-hags in your entourage"?