Economy.com: Seattle Definitely Special
Commenter MIDan pointed out a downright funny article over at Forbes.com in which they publish graphs predicting the next ten years of real estate prices in 15 metro areas around the country, including Seattle. Here's their graph for Seattle:
The company bases its forecasts on an econometric model that looks at the relationship between prices and various factors that have historically driven supply and demand in these markets. The intricate formula was proved to work when compared with actual house-price performance through the early 1990s, a period when home prices rose and then fell sharply.Ooooo, their "intricate formula was proved to work." I guess we should all just take it at face value then. And why wouldn't we want to? Seattle comes out far better than pretty much every other metro area they applied their secret sauce to. Here are the full results, sorted by highest forecasted appreciation first:
| Metro Area | 2006 | 2016 Frcst | Total % | % / Yr. |
| Seattle, WA | $384,543 | $612,383 | 59.25% | 4.76% |
| Dallas, TX | $162,461 | $245,725 | 51.25% | 4.22% |
| Houston, TX | $147,496 | $214,370 | 45.34% | 3.81% |
| San Diego, CA | $624,987 | $856,067 | 36.97% | 3.20% |
| Phoenix, AZ | $284,727 | $378,914 | 33.08% | 2.90% |
| St. Louis, MO | $147,359 | $195,607 | 32.74% | 2.87% |
| Atlanta, GA | $172,722 | $227,488 | 31.71% | 2.80% |
| Miami, FL | $399,348 | $498,564 | 24.84% | 2.24% |
| Los Angeles, CA | $538,477 | $667,048 | 23.88% | 2.16% |
| Chicago, IL | $290,953 | $360,018 | 23.74% | 2.15% |
| Minn.-St. Paul, MN | $244,186 | $286,397 | 17.29% | 1.61% |
| Philadelphia, PA | $230,495 | $269,818 | 17.06% | 1.59% |
| Boston, MA | $416,911 | $481,184 | 15.42% | 1.45% |
| New York, NY | $558,853 | $611,045 | 9.34% | 0.90% |
| Washington, DC | $435,899 | $450,747 | 3.41% | 0.34% |
But that's just my ignorant, non-economist opinion. I don't have any intricate formulas to back it up. This concludes your excessively sarcastic post for today.
(Lacey Rose, Forbes.com, 09.08.2006)
27 comments:
Why post stuff like this and leave out the Map of Misery, the stats on risky loans here?
Those are facts. This is the rambling of some deluded half-wit. His graph does not even reflect the (fairly big) drop in median that has just begun in San Diego.
A person can guess where RE might be in 10 years. But to not even reflect where it's heading as we speak is a bit disengenuous, don't you think?
I agree anon, and I've been thinking about the best way to post the "map of misery" as well as the map that came up in the last week or so that shows wage decreases around the country. They'll probably show up in a post in the coming week.
It's review time at MSFT, that unstoppable engine of meteoric income growth that guarantees the housing bubble cannot fail.
I've spoken to a few top performers in different areas - writing, dev, test; people with words like "Outstanding" and "Exceeded" in their reviews. Their raises? 5%. Right in line with last year...and the year before that.
Oh well. Maybe it's the wealthy Starbucks baristas that will save us. After all, everyone needs coffee, right?
That's great Tim. Thankyou. Both are very very important for people in this area to see.
The stats on the (inflation adjusted) declining income for this area are alarming, IMO. And offer a counter to those who claim that these homes are affordable to those who live here and that this economy is stellar/better than other areas of the country.
Detroit was the worst at -12% but WA. was right up there at -8%.
As to the Map of Misery, which shows the % of new and refinanced payment option loans, only CA and Nevada were higher than WA.
WA. is in the group that included AZ., FL. and HI.
Neither of the above are indicators of future health of any of those markets.
So it'll be great to see them on this blog and possibly rescue a few potential FB's.
I would think that Forbes is a pretty respectable source. I think they have been around a few years and it looks like they think very favorable of seattle.
I wonder if the secret formula includes the proximaty to ASIA and the fact that Puget Sound is the 3rd Largest Port.
Seattle is in a nice spot for globalization.
Anon - Forbes was the magazine that, last summer, called Seattle the "Most Overpriced City in the US"!
Did you read that?!
At the time, I thopught, yeah that's a pretty respectable source!
"Forbes was the magazine that, last summer, called Seattle the "Most Overpriced City in the US"!"
And since summer of 2005 prices have shot up at an even more torrid pace. Yet when the Forbes list came out this summer Seattle was not even in the top 10......Huh?
The WA Realtors Assn must have done some lobbying.
No bubble here folks....move along.
We need a link to Frank Sinatra's "High Hopes" mp3.
Does anybody know where I can find listing value of a home over time ( assuming I have MLS # ) ??
I want to see how some properties that are listed in our neighbourhood are doing ..thanks in advance
wonder if the secret formula includes the proximaty to ASIA and the fact that Puget Sound is the 3rd Largest Port. Seattle is in a nice spot for globalization.
I wonder if the 3rd largest port will remain in business. The port is interfering with a certain star trek wannabes real estate plans.
Here's a hint, if you were wondering: The now-defunct monorail authority, staffed by former vulcan employees, chose to build the route from Ballard to West Seattle because it passed by this person's waterfront propery holdings.
Tik Tik--If by "listing value" you mean "price" get a Zip Realty account (free) and they'll give you price reduction info for your MLS#.
HOWEVER, it is common in WA. to remove properties from the MLS lists and assign a new MLS# if it's been on the market "too long" or gone through "too many" price reductions. Keeps the property looking !fresh!!!
Realtors are the only ones who have access to MLS number changes - and they do not want to share that info with the consumer as it would hurt their sales and commissions.
If you mean historical values, or previous sales prices, go to the King County website with the address of the property.
(1) even making a leap by assuming those numbers are correct, appreciation will lag inflation over the 10-year period.
(2) Boston is in Maryland?
(3) forget the graphs, did you see the reporter?
in 2000 you could have said that the dow would be next higher than it is now if you factored in a "historical" average gain each year. but here were are, still haven't gotten to 12,000 after the burst.
(2) Boston is in Maryland?
Whoops, typo. Sorry about that. Corrected.
Thanks for pointing that out.
The problem with this is the problem any economist has with abnormal situations. You can't forecast the future looking in the rearview mirror when the present is in an unusual state. The voodoo financing and huge runup make past comparisons irrelevant. The past 9 recessions in the US were not predicted by the majority of economists before they started. Crashes are abnormal by their very nature, if they were predictable they wouldn't happen.
Well, that forecast is definitely toned down from all that talk of double-digit appreciation in many coastal areas.
Problem is: affordability is already severely stretched in many areas, where even a flat market may be wishful thinking. Remember that chart of option-ARM loans for WA?
And, does anyone recall those earlier Fortune articles pushing coastal real estate investment? Just like many other "wealth" rags, they were huge chearleaders of RE. By now, anybody trumpeting houses has their blinders on, or their "hand in the pie".
I am pretty sure that the median price of housing in Seattle is already more expensive than in NYC. NYC includes five boroughs, not just Manhattan.
actually the prediction for where we will be in 2016 doesn't sound too outlandish...
I just don't agree it's a steady 4% growth... most likely there will be 0 or negative growth in some of those years compensated by near double digit growth in some years ahead (8 or so years from now)...
Life is a cycle... we're at the top of one, it's going down, but it will go back up...
just pray you can survive the short term and get to the long term...
You are skeptical of anything written that suggests the Seattle market is healthy. If this same "intricate formula" determined that Seattle was going to crash and burn, you would have treated it as gospel. That is why I don't think you have much credibility.
Well of course prices will continue up - until they go down and Forbes writes a completely different article.
Seattle is not the only city or port around here. Tacoma's port is booming and has better (less congestion) access to trains and roads leading south and east. Vancouver's port land access will get you to the east and the midwest.
All we need is one major employer going out of business, or being bought out and moving, and things will slow way down. Can you say WaMU??
You are skeptical of anything written that suggests the Seattle market is healthy.
That's true, because so far no one has satisfactorily proven to me that this is the case. Articles that make the assertion of a healthy market in Seattle generally fall into three categories:
- Articles that just declare it to be so, without backing it up at all.
- Articles that claim some secret formula backs them up.
- Articles that provide weak arguments to back it up.
The first two types can't really be argued against, since basically all they do is assert a statement without backing it up. The third type rarely comes up, and the times that I have come across such articles, I have refuted them at length.
If this same "intricate formula" determined that Seattle was going to crash and burn, you would have treated it as gospel.
I don't think I've taken anything as "gospel" with regards to what will happen to the housing market in Seattle. I've said over and over again that we don't know what will happen, but I personally think prices will decline. I'm very up front about the fact that what is stated on here is my opinion, and my opinion only. I have never tried to claim that any prediction about Seattle's housing future is "gospel truth."
That is why I don't think you have much credibility.
Luckily for you, nobody is forcing you to read this blog.
Why do I look at that graph and feel like I am on a rollercoaster taht is slowly approaching the top. tic tic tic tic tic tic...
AAAAAAAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
RE: 9;03
median in the borough of New York a/k/a Manhattan as of 4Q 2005 is somewhere between 620K and 880K, depending on whether you believe the self-serving REBNY or any one of the the even more self-serving brokers.
Luckily for you, nobody is forcing you to read this blog.
Ahhh the "if you don't like it -- leave!" retort. But when you say that about Seattle, folks on here rip you a new one! Funny.
I've said over and over again that we don't know what will happen
I'm glad to hear you admit you don't know what will happen! So you realize that your predictions might very well be way off. And yet you mock people who disagree with you.
I enjoy reading this blog -- I guess I find the fringe thinkers kinda interesting. I wonder what these folks are going to do if their wrong and their Queen Anne dream home isn't available for $150,000 by this timei next year.
All we need is one major employer going out of business, or being bought out and moving, and things will slow way down.
You know, all the Puget area may need is a serious slowdown on sales activity, coupled with worsening affordability and credit tightening. How's that looking already?
As a bit of perspective, I closely follow the CA market to predict events for the greater W. coast. If you follow the trend line for Seattle, and know that "prime" parts of CA are literally tanking as of now, you may concur that Seattle will be affected by these macro events. Of course, it may not look that way from a regional scope, but one has to stretch to see a bigger picture to get any local understanding. I guess my point is: "prime" spots around SF bay are seeing reductions of as much as 25% over last fall, and that's without any catastrophic job downturn. Can the same happen in inflated areas around Seattle? Don't discount the possibility.
Your wish is my command.
Thanks, the tim!
To : Anonymous said...
It's review time at MSFT, that unstoppable engine of meteoric income growth that guarantees the housing bubble cannot fail.
I've spoken to a few top performers in different areas - writing, dev, test; people with words like "Outstanding" and "Exceeded" in their reviews. Their raises? 5%. Right in line with last year...and the year before that.
hey, you are not MS insider. how many persentage of those top performers at review? picking a word without context is wrong....
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